I found the Vancouver Sun article Get ready for oil supplies to dwindle, experts warn via Energy Bulletin. I don’t much like just using the entries on this site for blockquotes-n-links, but this bit of the article really caught me when I first read it and has been running through my head since. The article itself is sort of like an extremely condensed version of the oil depletion information provided in The End of Suburbia or Richard Heinberg’s The Party’s Over.
The basic notion is that the world’s oil producers are close to an absolute peak in terms of the volume of oil they can put onto the market in a given year.
Once that moment arrives, annual crude oil output will begin a long decline — with grim consequences for national economies.
Aleklett believes the peak could arrive as soon as 2008 — and that the struggle to adjust to the new energy reality could take 20 years, posing enormous challenges for developed nations.
Some observers suggest that the decline will prompt an economic and social meltdown on a scale last experienced in the Great Depression — or perhaps when the Black Death swept across Europe in 1347.
Even the International Energy Agency, which mulls global oil issues on behalf of Canada and 25 other developed countries including the United States, Great Britain and Japan, is exploring “barbarization” scenarios in which billions of people starve, national governments collapse, economies are forced to deindustrialize, and many regions of the world return to “semi-tribal or feudal social structures.”
“Oil wars are certainly not out of the question,” says the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
Link to article